MPs fear for seats under ‘vague’ SNP leadership as Margaret Ferrier by-election looms

It is understood that the research largely mirrors public polling and shows that Glasgow, Lanarkshire, the Western Isles, Midlothian and East Lothian are all within Labour’s grasp.

Stephen Flynn, the SNP leader at Westminster, will hold one-to-one meetings with his MP group this week, at which he will discuss personalised campaign plans that have been drawn up with a seconded member of staff from party headquarters.

There is disquiet among the group, who do not believe there is enough of a coherent vision to sustain an election campaign. One MP queried the lack of public clarity over the SNP’s offer to the electorate, which they contrasted with the targeted push by Labour. Another source at Westminster was more blunt: “There is no strategy as yet.”

The first test of how vulnerable the SNP is in west central Scotland is now more likely to take place after Ferrier’s attempt to avoid the recall petition was thrown out. In September 2020 she spoke in the Commons then took a train to Scotland after being told she had tested positive for Covid.

In August Ferrier, 62, was sentenced at Glasgow sheriff court to 270 hours’ community service after admitting culpable and reckless conduct. It was stated that she failed to self-isolate and had “exposed people to risk of infection, illness and death”.

The House of Commons independent expert panel on breaches of code of conduct was withering as it rejected Ferrier’s appeal, stating: “This is not one momentary error of judgment. It is a sequence of events amounting to a deliberate course of dishonest behaviour.”

Ferrier failed to inform anyone in the Commons — including the test and trace team — that she had taken a test for the virus after displaying symptoms. She also lied to the SNP chief whip about her reasons for leaving London for Glasgow after returning a positive result, saying that a family member was unwell.

On the train back to Glasgow she refused to respond to four calls from the NHS Scotland Test and Protect team and only once she was at home told her party she had the virus.

“By choosing to return home rather than self-isolate in London, as required by national restrictions and the House’s guidance, Ms Ferrier had acted selfishly in her personal interest and in defiance of the public interest,” the panel’s report said.

In her appeal, Ferrier said that the 30-day sanction was too severe and did not take into account that she referred herself to the standards commissioner or that she was a hard-working MP. She also argued that she was the victim of “double jeopardy” because she had already been found guilty of a criminal offence.

The expert panel rejected all of these arguments and pointed out that she did not refer herself to the commissioner until after 8pm on the day she tested positive, by which time she had been suspended by the SNP and reported to the police. “We have no doubt that she had, by this time, little choice but to self-refer,” the report said.

If an MP is suspended for more than ten days, a recall petition seeking a by-election can be started. It must be supported by 10 per cent of voters in the constituency to trigger a by-election.

Labour has selected a candidate, Michael Shanks, in controversial circumstances, while the SNP is yet to choose who will contest the seat after The Times revealed that Humza Yousaf, the first minister, was unhappy with the quality of would-be MPs who put themselves forward.

Jackie Baillie, Scottish Labour’s deputy leader, said: “It is simply disgraceful that this community has been left without proper representation due to the actions of Margaret Ferrier.”

The SNP said it would push for every vote in an effort to return a “strong SNP MP” for the constituency. Ferrier was approached for comment.